Treasury Bias
Context for ZN · ZF · ZB
Coverage: US Treasury Futures

Macro context dashboard

Treasury Bias

Coverage: US Treasury Futures

This page provides macro-based context for US Treasury futures. It does not publish live prices and is not a trading system.

Treasury Bias: Bullish

Score: 3

Bias is Bullish at ≥ +2, Bearish at ≤ −2. Scores between −1 and +1 are Neutral.

S&P 500 (SPY)
2026-07-17
743.29
-0.99%
Volatility (UVXY)
2026-07-17
25.44
8.811%
Gold (GLD)
2026-07-17
368.41
0.945%

Last update: 2026-07-18 15:59:09

Time: CT --:--:-- / Europe --:--:--
Last update: – · Next calculation in –
Drivers
The bias is derived from inter-market relationships: equity risk, volatility, and safe-haven demand.
Notes
This is contextual information, not financial advice.

Treasury Curve Direction

Treasury direction (daily change)

ZN
-0.48%
ZF
-0.49%
ZB
+0.14%

All bars share the same scale. The horizontal line shows today’s % change. When all lines move in the same direction, Treasury markets are aligned.

When all maturities point in the same direction, the Treasury move is considered broad and macro-driven.

Why curve alignment matters

When all Treasury futures (ZN, ZF, ZB) move in the same direction, trading becomes easier and more reliable.

  • If all instruments are up or down, the move is usually macro-driven and has higher follow-through.
    Aligned
  • When one contract moves against the others, it often slows down or invalidates the trade idea.
    Mixed
  • In aligned markets, one contract can act as a leading instrument, while the others confirm.
    Confirmation

Curve alignment helps reduce conflict between instruments and increases the probability of directional trades.

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.
Economic Calendar Guide

Which news really matters for US Treasuries?

US Treasuries react mainly to macroeconomic news that changes expectations around inflation, growth, Federal Reserve policy and overall risk sentiment. The calendar below highlights the key events to watch.

Top-tier events (high impact)

  • Federal Reserve (FOMC)
    Rate decisions, statement, press conference, Dot Plot
    High Impact
  • Inflation data
    CPI, Core CPI, PCE, Core PCE
    High Impact
  • US labor market
    Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Wage growth
    High Impact

Second-tier data (context & confirmation)

  • Growth indicators
    ISM Manufacturing & Services, Retail Sales, GDP
    Medium
  • Housing data
    Housing Starts, Building Permits, New & Existing Home Sales
    Medium

Macro & risk events

  • Geopolitical tensions, war or energy shocks
    Risk
  • Banking stress, credit events or liquidity concerns
    Risk
  • Debt ceiling debates or unexpected fiscal policy moves
    Risk
Recommended platforms
Commonly used platforms and tools for US Treasury futures trading.
Logos and trademarks belong to their respective owners. This site is independent and not affiliated with any platform listed.

How to use this with the Treasury Bias:
The Treasury Bias shows the current macro environment. Major calendar events help explain why the bias may strengthen, weaken or shift after the release.

Economic releases can cause short-term volatility. The Treasury Bias provides macro context only – not trading signals.